Simple: Mercedes got ahead of themselves.
When the Safety Car came out, they thought “we are a winning team! We lead at the front! We must pit now and then lead with new tyres, as the winning team!”
without actually thinking about what was the best strategy at that moment.
The tyres were still relatively fresh. Moreover, Sepang isn’t that rich for over-taking — especially when the other teams are on relatively new tyres, and your car is full of petrol.
Thus whoever pitted would be stuck behind lots of cars, all of which could also use DRS on the car in front, in traffic.
That one decision meant they were on the back foot in terms of pit strategy.
The Mercedes car was still around 0.8 per lap quicker than the Ferrari in like-f0r-like conditions, but they were always in a worse position on tyres.
Lewis Hamilton is the 2015 Formula 1 World Champion, over 19 races.
But they need to get back to simple, pragmatic strategy, not forcing themselves to play their entire race hand within the first several laps.
The ‘good’thing is that this has improved the odds for F1 betting – you can now possibly get better odds for Lewis Hamilton being the World Champion in 2015.