The F1 weekend in Valencia is set to be hotter than average.
That, in theory, means that cars will not one-stop, but rather two or three.
While Red Bull did well in Bahrain in the heat, McLaren had their old nose and less upgrades / understanding, and have improved since. Also the Valencia circuit is different to Bahrain – short, sharp corners rather than long windy ones.
The driver leading from lap 1 usually wins this – qualifying is going to be all-important, as over-taking is usually difficult (though Alonso pulled off some cheeky ones in the past).