Pre-Italy summary

I’m starting this blog at a crucial moment in the 2010 season. As we constantly read, it really is very close at the top, and any one of 5 drivers can be world champion. That’s a dull sentence, but it’s true.

But… it doesn’t mean it can happen. What I mean is this:

The ‘new’ points system is a good way for drivers with a low chance of winning, to convince themselves that ‘anything is still possible’. Alonso has been saying all season ‘I’m only 40 (or 45, 50) points behind, and it’s easy to catch up the points in a couple of races’.

But… that’s only true if he wins them all, and his 4 main opponents fail to score in each race.

Ditto Button. He can ‘aim to get my season back on track the next race’, and ‘it’s only 5/10/15 points in “old money”’, as he loves to endlessly repeat.

But again, it’s only true if he wins and no one else does. The problem is the clamour for any meaningful insight, in-between the 2 weeks of racing.

Take the recent car issues. Mark Hughes wrote a ridiculous piece on this recently. I’m not insulting him or being personal, but it was terrible. He had theories about the Red Bull car still being faster, but his reasoning took a few random points, and disregarded all other variables.

He even talked about RB being quick in Spain – many months ago!

Christian ‘T-1000’ Horner (T-1000 because he always tries to make squinty analytical-like eyes and move his head robotically around, as if he is a genius cyborg, analysing all events at an astonishing event-per-second-analysis ratio) always says ‘the new tests won’t affect us, but they will destroy our rivals’ (I exaggerate), so using the opinions from the RB camp is also useless to us.

There can be no real analysis made, Mark. We simply have to wait until Singapore. Why? Because the next race (Italy) isn’t a RB track. And, McLaren not only have a specific upgrade coming in Singapore, but will also have a far greater understanding of their diffuser et al by that point.

If you look at the cars the way they were 3 months ago, then yes we can say:

– Italy – ML

– Sing – RB

– Japan – RB

– Korea – Mix

– Brazil – RB

– Abu Dhabi – ML

Firstly, I have discounted Ferrari because they make too many errors, Domenicali is not a good leader, and Alonso’s heart is, surprisingly, not really in it. But that’s another article.

The point is that if ML can get more out of there car as it is now, AND bring upgrades, AND the new floor tests hurt RB, which they are widely assumed to, then we simply have to wait and see.

The above races will therefore be more even, and ML will not that far behind RB. If that is the case, as they have clearly one of the best if not the best driver in Hamilton, plus reliability that RB still lack (in car and driver), then it looks good for Lewis.

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